Strategic and Economic cases for HS2
Please see below for an update from HS2 Community Forums:
Dear Forum Member,
The Strategic Case for HS2 explains why the Government has concluded that HS2 is the best way to meet the challenge of an increasingly overcrowded transport network. It shows how HS2 will transform inter-city travel, radically improve commuter services into London and our other major cities; increase the amount of freight carried by rail as well as supporting economic growth and making a major contribution to rebalancing the economy.
- The Economic Case is HS2 Ltd’s advice to the Government on the economic case for HS2, setting out the likely value for money of the scheme. It is published alongside and in support of DfT’s strategic case. The Economic Case sets out that:
- There is a strong case for investment in HS2 – HS2 delivers high value for money and will generate more than £2 for every £1 invested, with a significant chance that returns could be considerably higher than this;
- The economic case for HS2 is resilient – our results are robust when tested against a wide range of scenarios. HS2 offers ‘high’ value for money in over 75% of scenarios tested – and returns are still positive even when taking a pessimistic view;
- Our analysis is evidence-based and robust – our analysis is based on the best available evidence, is compliant with necessary standards used for all transport appraisals, and has been independently audited; and
- The economic case uses cautious assumptions – our analysis uses conservative assumptions. We cap growth in passenger demand 3 years after opening, and we don’t include any potential benefits from rebalancing the economy or regeneration.
Important elements to note for both cases are:
- The Strategic Case sets our principles for any released capacity assumptions as well as our Assumptions Report (PFM v4.3) which details our released capacity assumptions. I suggest that the two documents be read in conjunction with each other.
- The BCR is presented with ranges, as opposed to a single a BCR which has been the previous method. This provides different case scenarios and year adjustments to reflect potential ranges of benefits to be derived from the scheme as a whole. This is adjusted annually to reflect updated information, any change in demand modelling, and, in this case, suggestions from the National Audit Office about how to present the business-cost ratio (BCR).
- Slight adjustments in our service pattern assumptions. Please remember the service pattern set out in these documents are for modelling purposes and do not reflect an agreed timetable.
- Slight adjustments to certain journey times- This is due to changes in the service specification and impacts from the latest modelling (from August 2013).
You can read the full documents below.
If you have any questions or concerns about this, please do not hesitate to contact us.
West Midlands Community & Stakeholder Engagement Team| High Speed Two (HS2) Ltd
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